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Tool · updated after every MPC meeting

CBRT MPC Decision Tracker

Türkiye's Monetary Policy Committee decisions in one place: a meeting calendar refreshed automatically from the CBRT website, word-level changes in each statement, and an AI-assisted analysis after every meeting, grounded in inflation and expectations data.

22 October 2026 · Annual CPI Sept 2026 · Survey · Oct 2026

Latest decision

22 October 2026 · 2026-45 Cut −100 bp

CBRT resumes easing with 100 bp cut to 36% after five holds, keeps cautious tone

The MPC cut the policy rate by 100 basis points to 36%, ending a run of five consecutive holds at 37% since March. The corridor shifted down by the same amount to 34.5%–39%. The decision matched the 36% expectation in the Survey of Market Participants. The statement upgraded its assessment to say the deceleration in underlying inflation is 'confirmed'. New wording on the 'size and timing of policy steps' points to a gradual easing cycle. The tightening clause and the emphasis on upside risks were both retained.

Policy rate 36% prev. 37% · −100 bp
Overnight corridor 34.5–39% borrowing – lending
Annual CPI 29.73% Sept 2026
12-month-ahead expectation 23.89% Survey · Oct 2026
Real rate (ex-ante) 9.8% vs. survey 12-month-ahead expectation
Real rate (ex-post) 4.8% vs. realised annual CPI
Next meeting 10 December 2026
Full analysis → CBRT press release ↗

Decision history

Using data known on the meeting day. Similarity: word-level overlap of the statement with the previous one.

Date Decision Policy rate Corridor CPI Expect. Real (ex-ante) Text similarity Links
22 October 2026 Cut −100 bp 36% 34.5–39% 29.73% 23.9% 9.8% 88% statement analysis
10 September 2026 Hold 37% 35.5–40% 31.51% 23.7% 10.8% 83% statement summary
23 July 2026 Hold 37% 35.5–40% 32.11% 24% 10.5% 90% statement summary
11 June 2026 Hold 37% 35.5–40% 32.61% 23.8% 10.7% 83% statement summary
22 April 2026 Hold 37% 35.5–40% 30.87% 23.4% 11% 78% statement summary
12 March 2026 Hold 37% 35.5–40% 31.53% 22.1% 12.2% 69% statement summary
22 January 2026 Cut −100 bp 37% 35.5–40% 30.89% 22.2% 12.1% 87% statement summary
11 December 2025 Cut −150 bp 38% 36.5–41% 31.07% 23.5% 11.7% 78% statement summary
23 October 2025 Cut −100 bp 39.5% 38–42.5% 33.29% 23.3% 13.1% 86% statement summary
11 September 2025 Cut −250 bp 40.5% 39–43.5% 32.95% 23.4% 13.9% 73% statement summary
24 July 2025 Cut −300 bp 43% 41.5–46% 35.05% 23.4% 15.9% 76% statement summary
19 June 2025 Hold 46% 44.5–49% 35.41% 24.6% 17.2% 84% statement summary
17 April 2025 Hike +350 bp 46% 44.5–49% 38.1% 25.6% 16.2% 16% statement summary
20 March 2025 Hold interim 42.5% 41–46% 39.05% 25.3% 13.7% 33% statement summary
6 March 2025 Cut −250 bp 42.5% 41–44% 39.05% 25.3% 13.7% 73% statement summary
23 January 2025 Cut −250 bp 45% 43.5–46.5% 44.38% 25.4% 15.6% 81% statement summary
26 December 2024 Cut −250 bp 47.5% 46–49% 47.09% 27.1% 16.1% 75% statement summary
21 November 2024 Hold 50% 47–53% 48.58% 27.2% 17.9% 76% statement summary
17 October 2024 Hold 50% 47–53% 49.38% 27.4% 17.7% 91% statement summary
19 September 2024 Hold 50% 47–53% 51.97% 27.5% 17.7% 85% statement summary
20 August 2024 Hold 50% 47–53% 61.78% 28.7% 16.6% 75% statement summary
23 July 2024 Hold 50% 47–53% 71.6% 30% 15.4% 76% statement summary
27 June 2024 Hold 50% 47–53% 75.45% 31.8% 13.8% 86% statement summary
23 May 2024 Hold 50% 47–53% 69.8% 33.2% 12.6% 78% statement summary
25 April 2024 Hold 50% 47–53% 68.5% 35.2% 11% 81% statement summary
21 March 2024 Hike +500 bp 50% 47–53% 67.07% 36.7% 9.7% 60% statement summary
22 February 2024 Hold 45% 43.5–46.5% 64.86% 37.8% 5.2% 56% statement summary
25 January 2024 Hike +250 bp 45% 43.5–46.5% 64.77% 39.1% 4.2% — statement summary

Meeting calendar

Dates announced by the CBRT; the calendar is re-read from the CBRT website every day.

Method and sources

Data. The meeting calendar, statements (TR/EN), meeting summaries, policy-rate and corridor history, annual CPI, the Survey of Market Participants, sectoral expectations and the Inflation Report interim targets are pulled from tcmb.gov.tr every business day. Survey expectations for 2024–Sep 2026 are read from the official wording of the CBRT meeting summaries, since the survey report archive is not published.

Statement diff. Each statement is compared word-by-word with the previous meeting’s: added and removed wording is marked. In central-bank communication a single word can be a signal.

Analysis. On decision day, and again once the meeting summary is out, the analysis is generated by Claude (Anthropic) from the inputs above only; the exact input the model saw is kept in the repository. The tone score runs from −2 (very dovish) to +2 (very hawkish). For information only — not investment advice.

For information only; not investment advice.