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Under a managed float, the delta-hedge cost of a USDTRY call comes from the forward, whose volatility is almost entirely rate/basis-driven. Closed forms (T³/3 fair vol, caplet equivalence) predict the losses of 96 real-data episodes, episode by episode.

An experiment on real intraday USDTRY data (Jan–Jun 2026): delta-hedging the same 1M call with spot + swap rolls, where rolling onshore vs offshore splits realized P&L by exactly the cumulative basis.

A regulatory firewall does not merely sustain a static cross-currency basis — it bifurcates the onshore and offshore TRY forwards into different asset classes. The onshore forward carries near-zero rate vol; the offshore forward is a hybrid FX–rates swaption. The '4-vol-point phantom vega' a local desk sees is unhedgeable offshore rho — traced through a +1000 bps squeeze and the closed-form offshore-basis rho.

A measure-theoretic, multi-curve framework for onshore/offshore TRY rate divergence: why mixing the onshore forward with an offshore-quoted volatility surface is inconsistent and mispriced, and a jump-diffusion model that explains a 22% implied vol on a near-zero realized-vol peg and resolves the cross-currency basis as an XVA reserve.

An interactive Garman-Kohlhagen pricer for European vanilla FX options: premium, forward outright and the full Greeks (delta, gamma, vega, theta, dual-currency rho) with an expiry payoff diagram. T+2 spot, Modified Following roll, ACT/365 and continuously compounded rates.

Where Brent and WTI land within days–weeks in a full de-escalation scenario — and why the real story is the 2027 supply glut. Reading Hormuz's reopening as two distinct price regimes.

An option on a cross rate is an option on covariance. Why correlation risk ('cega'), gamma/cross-gamma and the joint devaluation tail can't be statically replicated with leg vanillas — and why, for EUR/TRY, the offshore swap squeeze and FRTB capital (NMRF/RRAO) are the real reasons desks quote wide.

China's tech priorities are not a wish list but a map of imperatives produced by demographic, geopolitical and energy pressures — a structural reading.

The fact that compound return is geometric, not arithmetic, shows why putting drawdown minimization at the center is the rational choice.

The energy shock from the conflict ongoing since March 2026 is distributed asymmetrically: Asia and Europe are squeezed, the US comes out a net winner — and among big importers China is the most resilient.